: Lars Schernikau, William Hayden Smith
: The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy
: Books on Demand
: 9783759727374
: 1
: CHF 13.20
:
: Wärme-, Energie- und Kraftwerktechnik
: English
: 156
: kein Kopierschutz
: PC/MAC/eReader/Tablet
: ePUB
The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy Revised Edition - 2024. Electricity is to modern civilization what blood is to the human body. Understanding how electricity works is more critical than ever as its importance grows with the increasing electrification of transport, industry, and heating. Due to new reports and adjusted information being published, we revised our original book to reflect these updates, enabling us to bring you relevant information. - Lars Schernikau 2024 In this new book the authors explain the fundamental reasons for the energy shortages that the world (particularly Europe) started to experience in 2021, and which was exacerbated by Russia's invasion of the Ukraine in 2022. In doing so, the authors describe - in relation to our electricity markets - what could work and what won't. This book is not only an introduction to modern electricity systems and electricity costs, but it also touches on primary energy and transportation. The authors focus more on the generation of electricity from a macroeconomic energy transition point of view and less on the details of how electricity physically works. The environmental efficiency of our energy systems is more complex than CO2-emissions alone. Energy input, material input, lifetime, and recycling efficiency are other key elements discussed in the book. The book concludes with thoughts on the future of energy and suggestions for energy policy, taking into account the new challenges that come with global efforts to decarbonize. Prof. Everett, energy economist, writes: Despite numerous policy initiatives and the expenditure of trillions of dollars on alternatives, fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy throughout the world, and their use continues to grow in absolute terms. To understand the reasons for this seeming contradiction, Lars and Bill have compiled a complete overview of how the global energy economy actually works, as opposed to the way it is presented in popular media. This is an invaluable reference work that should be on the bookshelf of anyone interested in energy policy, electricity markets, and environmental protection. Topics covered in this book include: -Primary energy vs. electricity -Wind and solar (or what is revered to as variable renewable energy) -Capacity factors -Installed capacity vs. generated electricity -Hydrogen and batteries -Material input -Transmission and distribution -Heat pumps -Energy shortages and more

Dr. Lars Schernikau is an energy economist, entrepreneur, and commodity trader in the energy raw materials industry based in Switzerland and Singapore.

1. Electricity and investments – the current situation


Figure 2: Top 10 countries – electricity generation in 2022

(1) Electricity production share of respective country; (2) CAGR – compound annual growth rate 2012-2022 in %; (3) Includes other renewables& other.

Source: Schernikau Research and Analysis based on Energy Institute 2023

Fossil fuels – in order of importanceoil, coal, and gas make up ~80% of global primary energy (“PE”) production, totaling ~170.000 TWh or ~600 EJ. Despite Covid-19, geopolitical turmoil, and significant wind and solar capacity additions, it is estimated that the percentage will not change in 2023 or 2024; quite to the contrary, coal is making a comeback (IEA 2022). Coal and gas made up ~60% of global gross electricity production, totaling ~29.200 TWh in 2022. Three countries alone, China, the USA, and India, make up ~50% of global electricity consumption (Figure 2). It is important to note that global electricity production consumes up to ~40% of primary energy, with transportation, heating, and industry accounting for the remaining ~60% (Figure 3 andFigure 35, p104).

Realistic primary energy growth of ~50% until 2050 is driven by ~25% population growth and ~20% average per capita energy demand growth. This contrasts with IRENA’s, McKinsey’s, and the IEA’s “Net-Zero” pathways, which often assume much less growth and either flat or even a ~10% drop in primary energy. McKinsey 2022b assumes a 14% rise until 2035 and thereafter flat primary energy consumption until 2050. IEA Net-Zero 2021 assumes a 10% drop in primary energy consumption demand as early as 2030. The “primary energy” measure and the misconception of falling primary energy with solar and wind’s increased penetration is discussed inChapter 2.7.

Figure 3: Overview of global primary energy and electricity in 2022

(1) Only the portion of Industry/Transport/Building that is not included under electricity; (2) assumed worldwide net efficiency of ~33% for nuclear, ~37% for coal, ~42% for gas. With an assumed avg. ~40% efficiency => 2~29.000 TWh becomes ~72.000 TWh or roughly 40% of ~170.000 TWh.

Source: Schernikau Research and Analysis based on Energy Institute 2023 and IEA Statistics 2023

Current energy policy focuses on the electrification of energy, thus significantly increasing electricity’s share of primary energy by increasing the use of electricity for transportation (see EVs), heating (see heat pumps), and industry (see DRI, direct reduced iron, producing steel using hydrogen). Therefore, this book focuses on electricity. For a more comprehensive discussion on transportation, we recommend Kiefer’s 2013Twenty-First Century Snake Oil, which includes details on hydrocarbons and biofuels for transportation that are not covered herein in detail.

Despite the trillions of US dollars spent globally on the “energy transition” (Figure 4), the proportion of fossil fuels as part of total energy supply has been essentially constant at around 80% since the 1970s, when gross energy consumption was less than half as high (WEF 2020). Also in Europe, fossil fuels’ share is still above 70%, in Germany ~80%. Kober et al. 2020 among others, confirm that total primary energy consumption more than doubled in the 40 years between 1978 to 2018. At the same time, the energy intensity of GDP improved by a little less than 1%, confirming the Jevon’s Paradox thatenergy efficiency improvements are in principle offset by higher energy demand (Polimeni et al. 2015).

Figure 4: Investments in coal are one third of wind/solar, while coal provides ~3x more electricity

Note: Investments are considering investments in fuels and power.

Source: Schernikau Research and Analysis based on IEA WEI 2023, Energy Institute 2023 and BNEF 2023

Variable “renewables”1 in the form of wind and solar accounted for ~5%