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HOW METHANOL CAN SECURE ENERGY SUPPLY

A spectre haunts Switzerland. It’s the spectre of the blackout. For many years, the security of electricity supply was not an issue in Switzerland, maybe just for a few experts. But since 2021, the possibility of supply gaps from 2025 onwards has been on the cards. This is due to import capacities potentially decrease due to the lack of an agreement with the EU and the entry into force of a new regulatory package. In addition, despite electricity-saving measures, the demand for electrical energy tends to rise, partly because of the substitution of fossil fuels to reduce CO2 pollution and advancing digitalisation. Blackout headlines are the consequence, and these immediately triggered hectic activity in politics.

Security of supply in Switzerland

In principle, Switzerland produces enough electricity overall for its current needs. In 2021, around 60.000 gigawatt hours of electricity were produced: 62 percent came from hydropower plants, 29 percent from nuclear power plants, 4 percent from conventional thermal power plants and 6 percent from various renewable sources such as biogas, photovoltaic or wind power plants. However, electricity is not always available in the required amount. This means that in summer, more electricity is produced than is domestically needed, and in winter, the opposite is true. For a few years now, electricity has been exported in summer and imported in winter. In 2020, more electricity was exported than imported, namely around 10 per cent of the quantity used; in 2021, more was imported than exported, namely around 4 per cent of the quantity used.37

Electricity imports come primarily from the surrounding EU states. But now that the framework agreement with the EU has failed, Switzerland can no longer rely on sufficient electricity being supplied from the EU during the winter period. According to the “Clean Energy Package”, a new regulatory package that will come into force in 2025,38 all European transmission system operators must keep at least 70 per cent of cross-border grid capacities free for electricity trading within the EU from 2025. “How this should take into account cross-border capacities to third countries such as Switzerland is not regulated in EU legislation,” the Federal Council noted in October 2021. “This could significantly restrict Switzerland’s import capacities. In addition, the unplanned electricity flows caused by electricity trade between neighbouring countries could increase further and thus jeopardise grid stability in Switzerland.”39

A study examined the possible effects under three different scenarios. The worst-case scenario predicts a critical situation in the winter season, at the latest in March: For 47 hours, domestic power supply could then no longer be guaranteed. 66 gigawatt hours of energy per year would be lost. If additional production outages were to be added, “the supply could even be interrupted for up to 500 hours and more than 690 gigawatt hours per year could be missing,” the report states. That would amount to more than 20 days in total. The study highlights that the situation will be difficult without an electricity agreement in place with the EU.

The shutdown of nuclear power plants, already decided and due to take place in the foreseeable future, will further exacerbate the situation. “In the long term, Switzerland will face a massive shortage of electricity if we shut down the nuclear power plants and demand simultaneously rises as steeply as our climate targets suggest,” warned Christoph Brand, head of Axpo Holding, Switzerland’s largest electricity group, in an interview with the “NZZ” newspaper in February 2022.40

Proposals for little result-yiel