: John Geraci
: POLL-ARIZED Why Americans Don't Trust the Polls - And How to Fix Them Before It's Too Late
: Houndstooth Press
: 9781544528700
: 1
: CHF 7.30
:
: Sonstiges
: English
: 314
: kein Kopierschutz
: PC/MAC/eReader/Tablet
: ePUB
Have you ever wondered why pollsters can't seem to predict who the next president will be? With the sheer volume of data that encircles our lives, why can't pollsters detect the signal through the noise? POLL-ARIZED is a provocative examination of what has gone wrong with US pre-election polls written from the unique perspective of a market research industry insider. Blending actual data from polls, interviews with leading pollsters, and a proprietary survey conducted specifically for this book, POLL-ARIZED positively reframes the narrative on what's wrong with our polling system and how pollsters should move forward. Accurate polling is essential to any democracy. America needs pollsters to reestablish trust, simplify the polling process, and nudge their methodologists out of the way. POLL-ARIZED delves deeply into these issues and provides a clear roadmap through which pollsters can once again become trusted arbiters of American public opinion.

Preface


Like many people, I could not get to sleep on November 3, 2020. It was election night in America, and the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden remained unsettled when I finally turned in for the night.

I am sure many others also had trouble sleeping, not knowing who would be president. Maybe they were excited that their candidate seemed likely to win. Or perhaps they were fearful that the “other guy” might prevail.

On this night, a divided country united on one thing—the frustration of having no certainty about who our next president wouldbe.

I was wide awake for a different reason. As the night wore on, it became apparent that the 2020 polls were performing poorly. Pollsters, some of whom are friends of mine, were taking a beating on cable channels and Twitter. Reporters were misinterpreting the polls. Pollsters were getting defensive. Clouds were forming that seemed likely to threaten the credibility of polling going forward.

It was as if the election had become a referendum on pollsters’ performance rather than the engine of democracy.

I am part of the market research industry. This field uses surveys and polls (and other methods) to guide decision makers in pretty much any organization you can imagine:Fortune 500 companies, nonprofits, even governments. When you see a new advertising campaign, a new product on store shelves, fresh features on products you already use, updated packaging, or an increase in the prices you pay, market research probably informed these changes.

Market research is big business. Estimates vary, but market research spending in the United States is likely in the $20 billion range.2 US market research spending is larger than the whole economies of North Korea or Jamaica.

Pre-election polling is a small but resonant part of the market research field. It is the segment of market research most people know. The US presidential race is polling’s Super Bowl.

It is awell-kept secret that althoughpre-election polling is the mostpublic-facing aspect of what researchers do, it is hard to make money at polling. Most pollsters conduct polls because it helps build their brands and sell other, more profitable work. Others do so because they enjoy media exposure. Who does not want to be on TV or a podcast discussing their views about the next election?

Polling failures reflect poorly on the broader field of market research.Pre-election polls have failed many times throughout history. They were struggling again in 2020, which is one reason why I could not sleep.

I am the president of a market research firm and have worked in survey research for more than 30 years. I have seen firsthand how the quality of data collected from surveys and polls has deteriorated over the past decade.

Survey research and polling