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The Case Against 2 Per Cent Inflation From Negative Interest Rates to a 21st Century Gold Standard

:	Brendan Brown
:	The Case Against 2 Per Cent Inflation From Negative Interest Rates to a 21st Century Gold Standard
:	Palgrave Macmillan
:	9783319893570
:	1
:	CHF 31.30
:

:	Geld, Bank, Börse
:	English

:	234
:	Wasserzeichen/DRM
:	PC/MAC/eReader/Tablet
:	PDF

This book analyses the controversial and critical issue of 2% inflation targeting, currently practised by central banks in the US, Japan and Europe. Where did the 2% target inflation originate, and for what reason? Do these reasons stand up to scrutiny?

This book explores these key questions, contributing to the growing debate that the global 2% inflation standard prescribed by the central banks in the advanced economies globally is actually contributing to the economic malaise of these nations. It presents novel theoretical perspectives, intertwined with historical and market understanding, and features analysis that draws on monetary theory (including Austrian school), behavioural finance, and finance theory.

Alongsid rigorous analysis of the past and present, the book also features forward looking chapters, exploring how the 2% global inflation standard could collapse and what would ideally follow its demise, including a new look at the role of gold.

Brendan Brown is a monetary economist and currently Head of Economic Research at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (Europe). Dr. Brown is also a Senior Research Fellow of the Hudson Institute, Washington DC and an Associate Scholar at the Mises Institute (USA). His areas of expertise include monetarism in theory and practice, Austrian School monetary tradition, European monetary integration, Japanese monetary issues, the global flow of capital, and international financial history. Brendan has published many books on contemporary finance and financial historyHe received a PhD from the University of London, a MBA from the University of Chicago, a MSc from the London School of Economics, and an undergraduate degree from Cambridge University.

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	Dedication	5
	Acknowledgements	6
	Contents	8
	Chapter 1: Next: The Fifth Stabilization Experiment Under Fiat Money	10
	First Stage of Fiat System Disorder: 1914–31	10
	Second Stage, 1931–68	12
	Third Stage: 1969–85	13
	Fourth Stage: Mid-1980s to Present Day (2018–?)	14
	How Would an Asset Price Deflation Crisis Emerge?	17
	How Could a Goods and Services Inflation Shock Erupt?	18
	The Looming Fifth Stage of Monetary Disorder	18
	Bibliography	19
	Chapter 2: Origins of the Global 2% Inflation Standard	20
	Inflation Shock of the Late 1980s	20
	New Zealand Leads the Way	22
	Stanley Fischer and the Neo-Keynesian Reach for Power	23
	The Glacial “Ascent” of the US to Joining the 2% Inflation Standard	26
	Greenspan and Bernanke Complete the Journey to 2% Inflation Standard	28
	Summary: The Present Case Against 2% Inflation	29
	A Look-Back to Contemporary Arguments Against 2%	32
	Bibliography	34
	Chapter 3: Diagnosis of Monetary Inflation in Asset Markets	35
	Asset Price Inflation Defined	36
	Stages of Asset Price Inflation	37
	The Twins of Asset Price Inflation and Goods Inflation	39
	Characteristics of Boom-Type Asset Price Inflation	40
	Characteristics of Depression-Type Asset Price Inflations	42
	Carry Trades Under Depression-Type Asset Price Inflation	47
	2018: Depression-Type Asset Price Inflation Update	49
	Bibliography	50
	Chapter 4: Manipulation of Long-Term Interest Rates	51
	The Journey to Long-Term Rate Dysfunction	51
	Bernanke Dislocates the Monetary Base	54
	The Cost of Long-Term Rate Market Dysfunction	57
	The Re-entry Problem: How Bond Markets Return to Normal Signalling	58
	Monetary Policy Anaesthesia Under 2% Inflation	60
	Bibliography	62
	Chapter 5: A Failure of US Checks and Balances	63
	The Acquiescence of Congress in the 2% Inflation Target	64
	1920s Precedent for Congress Ignoring Fed Policy as Cause of Crisis	65
	Congress Adopts a Price Stabilization Mandate First in Mid-1970s	67
	No Murmur from Congress When Fed Abandons Money Supply Targets	70
	Republicans Fail in Their Opposition to “Obama Fed”	72
	Audit the Fed	73
	A Coalition for Sound Money Reform	76
	Bibliography	80
	Chapter 6: Digitalization, Camouflage, and Monetary Inflation	82
	Camouflaged Inflation	82
	Digitalization Revolution Enables the Monetary Inflationist	85
	Speculative Narratives Justify Bad Bets	87
	The Digitalization Revolution and the Neutral Rate of Interest	93
	The Camouflaged Monetary Inflation Boost of 2016–17	97
	Bibliography	100
	Chapter 7: Much Ruin in Japan’s Journey to 2%	101
	The Miracle Years End in Great Inflation	102
	Japan on the Edge of Monetarist Experiments 1977–84/85	103
	Japan’s Camouflaged Monetary Inflation in Response to Plaza 1985–89	104
	The Depression and Rapid Recovery Which Did Not Occur 1990–97	106
	Radical Monetary Experimentation Fuels a Giant Yen Carry Trade 1998–2007	107
	The Shirakawa Resistance to US-Led Monetary Inflation 2008–12	110
	Shinzo Abe Puts Japan on the 2% Inflation Standard	113
	No One Believes the Bank of Japan’s 2% Inflation Megillah	115
	Japan Heads Towards End Phase of Asset Price Inflation	117
	Bibliography	120
	Chapter 8: Germany Abdicates Hard Money Power	121
	Founders of EMU Had No Sound Money Vision	121
	The Details of German Abdication	125
	Bundesbank Fails Hard Money Advocates Throughout EMU Journey	127
	Under Chancellor Merkel, Maastricht Monetary Constitution Becomes Dead Letter	128
	The ECB Embraces the 2% Inflation Standard	130
	Draghi-Merkel Pact on Vast Monetary Base Expansion	132
	Could Germany Yet Lead the World Back to Hard Money?	134
	Bibliography	136
	Chapter 9: Unaffordable Housing and Poor-Quality Money	137
	A Plague of High House Prices	138
	Sound Money Fosters Affordable Housing	139
	Emotions Stoke Asset Inflation in Housing	140
	Dysfunctional Long-Term Rate Markets Fuel Housing Distortions	141
	Subsidy on Leverage Hits Affordability	142