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Managing Country Risk in an Age of Globalization A Practical Guide to Overcoming Challenges in a Complex World

:	Michel Henry Bouchet, Charles A. Fishkin, Amaury Goguel
:	Managing Country Risk in an Age of Globalization A Practical Guide to Overcoming Challenges in a Complex World
:	Palgrave Macmillan
:	9783319897523
:	1
:	CHF 80.40
:

:	Management
:	English

:	542
:	Wasserzeichen/DRM
:	PC/MAC/eReader/Tablet
:	PDF

This book provides an up-to-date guide to managing Country Risk. It tackles its various and interlinked dimensions including sovereign risk, socio-political risk, and macroeconomic risk for foreign investors, creditors, and domestic residents. It shows how they are accentuated in the global economy together with new risks such as terrorism, systemic risk, environmental risk, and the rising trend of global volatility and contagion. The book also assesses the limited usefulness of traditional yardsticks of Country Risk, such as ratings and rankings, which at best reflect the market consensus without predictive value and at worst amplify risk aversion and generate crisis contamination. This book goes further than comparing a wide range of risk management methods in that it provides operational and forward-looking warning signs of Country Risk. The combination of the authors' academic and market-based backgrounds makes the book a useful tool for scholars, analysts, and practitioners.

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Michel Henry Bouchet is currently Distinguished Finance Professor at SKEMA Business School as well as strategy adviser. He has held senior positions at BNP, the World Bank, and the Institute of International Finance. He also served as CEO of Owen Stanley Financial SA. and as senior adviser for ING Barings. Bouchet graduated in Economics from the University of Paris X and from the Paris Institut d'Etudes Politiques. He also holds a Master and Ph.D. in International Relations from University of South Carolina. He received his HDR from University Paris-Dauphine.

Charles A. Fishkin has held senior positions across the spectrum of financial services, spanning a career of 30 plus years. He led the first agency wide risk management program at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, serving as the Director of the Office of Risk Assessment. He is the author ofThe Shape of Risk: A New Look at Risk Management(Palgrave 2006). He is an adjunct faculty in the Masters Program in Financial Engineering at Bernard M. Baruch College of The City University of New York. He has a BA in Economics, with General Honors, from The University of Chicago.

Amaury Goguel is the scientific Director for the MSc Financial Management and Investment (FMI) program at SKEMA Business School in Paris. He was previously head of SKEMA's MSc in Corporate Financial Management (CFM). Goguel holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Lille University. He also holds master's degrees from the College of Europe (Bruges), Paris 1 Sorbonne, and Complutense University of Madrid. He served as a consultant on global finance, European affairs, and political parties.

	Foreword by Tanya S. Beder	5
	Contents	8
	List of Figures	10
	List of Tables	15
	Managing Country Risk in an Age of Globalization: Introduction	19
	1 Assessing Risk in a Global Economy	26
	1.1Introduction	26
	1.2What Is Risk?	26
	1.2.1A Multifaceted Concept	26
	1.2.2Risk, Uncertainty, and Ambiguity	27
	1.2.3A Spectrum of Diverse Issues	30
	1.2.4A Source of Loss and Gain	33
	1.2.5The Effect on Other Outcomes	33
	1.2.6A Function of Perspective	34
	1.2.7Inherent Versus Residual Risk	34
	1.2.8Risk Appetite	35
	1.3What Is Risk Management?	38
	1.3.1A Way of Thinking	38
	1.3.2What Risk Management Requires	38
	1.4Conclusion	40
	References	43
	2 What Is Country Risk?	45
	2.1Introduction—The Discovery of Risk	45
	2.2The Emergence of Risk Assessment	46
	2.3Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility	50
	2.4What Is Country Risk All About?	53
	2.5The Evolution in the Nature and Scope of Country Risk	55
	2.6Defining Country Risk	65
	2.7The Main Components of Country Risk	66
	2.8How Does Country Risk Materialize?	70
	2.9Is There an Optimal Institutional Organization for Country Risk Management?	72
	2.10Conclusion	72
	Appendix 2.1: Four Examples of Country Risk Exposure	73
	References	75
	3 Country Risk in the Age of Globalization: Cycles and Dynamics. A Review of Literature	77
	3.1Introduction to the Main Approaches to Country Risk Analysis	77
	3.1.1The Analysis of Country Risk Has Continuously Evolved	77
	3.1.2The Scope of Country Risk Has Continuously Evolved	78
	3.1.3Puzzling Over the Anatomy of Crises	79
	3.1.4The Global Financial Crisis Has Changed the “Frame Analysis”	80
	3.2Is Country Risk Prediction Doomed to Failure in the Age of Globalization?	82
	3.2.1Quantitative Versus Qualitative Approach	83
	3.3What About New Kind of Crises and New Related Indicators?	84
	3.3.1Push Versus Pull Factors	84
	3.3.2In the Long Run, We Are All Dead	87
	3.4The Cyclic Nature of Crises Is Increasingly at the Heart of Country Risk Analysis	87
	3.4.1Sources of Cycles	88
	3.4.2Bunches of Defaults	88
	3.4.3Amplifying Factors and Minsky Moment	89
	3.4.4Recurrent Cyclic Patterns	91
	3.4.5Vicious Spirals	92
	3.4.6Distorted Incentives	93
	3.5Additional Sources of Cycles and Volatility	94
	3.5.1Prices and Exchange Rates	94
	3.5.2Risk Appetite and Market Sentiment	95
	3.5.3Commodities are also “Super-Cyclical”	95
	3.5.4Real Estate Cycles and Global Impact	96
	3.6Globalization and Country Vulnerabilities	99
	3.6.1Holistic Perspective and Interactions	99
	3.6.2Vulnerability Factors Identified by Scholars	99
	3.6.3Tolerance and Resilience Factors	100
	3.6.4“Communicating Vessels” Effect	100
	3.7Structural Vulnerabilities	103
	3.7.1Trade Vulnerabilities	103
	3.7.2A Mix of Structural Weaknesses and Growth Bottleneck	104
	3.8Developing Countries: Geometrically Variable Models	105
	3.8.1Setting the Scene	105
	3.8.2Inequalities and Wealth Gap	105
	3.8.3Institutions and Governance	106
	3.8.4The Paradox of Plenty	107
	3.9Concluding Remarks	110
	References	110
	4 Country Risk Assessment: The Key Role of Official Information Sources	117
	4.1Introduction: Assessing Uncertainty to Manage Risk	117
	4.2The Key Sources of Country Risk-Related Economic Intelligence	119
	4.3Official Sources of Country Risk Information: The National Institutions	120
	4.3.1The Role of the Paris Club	120
	4.3.2The Role of OECD Countries’ Export Credit Agencies	120
	4.3.2.1 Compagnie Française D’Assurance et de Crédit à L’Exportation (Coface)	121
	4.3.2.2 US Export-Import Bank (EXIM)	121
	4.3.2.3 The Role of OECD Countries’ Central Banks and Treasuries	123
	4.3.2.4 The Role of the Bank of Canada’s Comprehensive Debt Database	124
	4.3.2.5 US Fed, US Treasury, Office of Financial Research, and FFIEC	124
	4.3.2.6 The US Central Intelligence Agency	1