: David G McMillan
: Predicting Stock Returns Implications for Asset Pricing
: Palgrave Pivot
: 9783319690087
: 1
: CHF 57.00
:
: Betriebswirtschaft
: English
: 141
: Wasserzeichen/DRM
: PC/MAC/eReader/Tablet
: PDF

This book provides a comprehensive analysis of asset price movement. It examines different aspects of stock return predictability, the interaction between stock return and dividend growth predictability, the relationship between stocks and bonds, and the resulting implications for asset price movement. By contributing to our understanding of the factors that cause price movement, this book will be of benefit to researchers, practitioners and policy makers alike. 



David G. McMillan is a Professor of Finance at the University of Stirling, UK. His research interests are in empirical financial economics, and include forecasting asset returns and volatility, modelling the linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic variables and examining the behaviour of financial and investor ratios. David has published widely on these topics in internationally respected peer-reviewed journals such as theJournal of Banking and Finance and theOxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. He is a senior editor for theCogent Economics andFinance and Cogent Business and Management journals and sits of the editorial board of several internationally respected journals, including theEuropean Journal of Finance and theJournal of Asset Management.

Predicting Stock Returns2
Contents6
List of Figures7
List of Tables8
1 Introduction11
Abstract11
References16
2 Where Does Returns and Cash-Flow Predictability Occur? Evidence from Stock Prices, Earnings, Dividends and Cointegration18
Abstract18
2.1Introduction19
2.2Methodology21
2.3Data and Empirical Results23
Data23
Cointegration and State-Space Models23
Returns and Cash-Flow Predictability27
2.4Summary and Conclusion32
References34
3 Forecasting Stock Returns—Historical Mean Vs. Dividend Yield: Rolling Regressions and Time-Variation36
Abstract36
3.1Introduction37
3.2Empirical Methodology39
3.3Data and Empirical Results43
Discussion and Further Results55
3.4Summary and Conclusion62
References63
4 Returns and Dividend Growth Switching Predictability66
Abstract66
4.1Introduction67
4.2Methodology68
4.3Data and Results69
4.4Summary and Conclusion82
References83
5 Which Variables Predict and Forecast Stock Market Returns?85
Abstract85
5.1Introduction86
5.2Background88
5.3Data90
5.4Empirical Results91
5.5Forecasting101
5.6Summary and Conclusion104
Appendix—Data Series106
References108
6 Forecast and Market Timing Power of the Model and the Role of Inflation110
Abstract110
6.1Introduction111
6.2Data and Linear Forecasting114
Data and Empirical Methodology114
In-Sample Predictive and Out-of-Sample Forecast Results118
6.3Probit Model and Market Timing125
6.4The Role of Inflation and Threshold Regression128
6.5Summary and Conclusions133
References134
7 Summary and Conclusion137
Abstract137
Index140