| Preface | 8 |
|---|
| The Illusion of Effective Risk Management | 9 |
| The Unforeseen Versus the Unknown | 10 |
| Acknowledgements | 14 |
|---|
| Dante Disparte | 14 |
| Daniel Wagner | 15 |
| Contents | 16 |
|---|
| About the Authors | 18 |
|---|
| Dante Disparte | 18 |
| Daniel Wagner | 19 |
| Praise for Global Risk Agility and Decision Making | 22 |
|---|
| List of Abbreviations | 26 |
|---|
| List of Illustrations | 30 |
|---|
| List of Tables | 32 |
|---|
| Part I: The Risk Management Conundrum | 33 |
|---|
| 1: Risk Management in a Global World | 34 |
| Declaring Battle | 34 |
| The Global Risk Landscape | 35 |
| Evolving Perceptions of Risk | 38 |
| Preparing for Global Shocks | 41 |
| Taking a Broader View of Risk | 43 |
| Global Risk Agility | 45 |
| 2: Risk Management as a Process | 48 |
| Risk Is a Process Not an Event | 48 |
| Current Frameworks and Their Utility | 51 |
| Classical Risk Management Frameworks | 53 |
| Matching Process with Process | 55 |
| Evolving Over Time | 57 |
| Risk in the Asset-less Economy | 58 |
| Complex Systems Fail in Complex Ways | 61 |
| Agile Risk Control | 65 |
| Gaining Agility and Speed | 67 |
| 3: The Risk Continuum | 71 |
| Out of Sample Events: Hurricanes | 72 |
| Macro Agility in Panama | 74 |
| Anti-Risk Agility: Neglect, Bankruptcy, and Crime in the Caribbean | 76 |
| How Kings Fall | 79 |
| Cities at Risk | 80 |
| Reputation Risk Has a Price | 84 |
| Anything in the Name of Growth | 85 |
| Municipal and Sovereign Risk | 87 |
| A New Host for Systemic Risk | 89 |
| A National CRO | 93 |
| In Search of Causality While Ignoring Change | 94 |
| 4: Complexity Reduction | 97 |
| Sunlight Is the Greatest Disinfectant | 98 |
| The First and Last Line of Defense | 102 |
| Values in Action | 107 |
| Primordial Lesson | 110 |
| Tempering Values with Risk Taking | 111 |
| Absence of Evidence | 112 |
| Analysis Paralysis | 113 |
| Entrepreneurialism | 114 |
| Complexity, Capital, and Supply Chains | 117 |
| Simplicity Is the Key | 119 |
| 5: Three-Dimensional Risk Management | 125 |
| One-Dimensional Risk Management and the Placebo Effect | 127 |
| Agile Risk Culture | 133 |
| Assessing Risk Culture | 134 |
| Lessons from Entrepreneurs | 135 |
| Unequal Resilience | 137 |
| Risk Agility Meets Mobility | 138 |
| Mobility Curtailed | 140 |
| Expatriate Risk | 141 |
| Antiagile | 142 |
| Part II: The Global Risk Labyrinth | 146 |
|---|
| 6: Terrorism | 147 |
| A Globalization Backlash | 147 |
| The Importance of Perceptions | 150 |
| Some Surprising Terrorism Facts | 152 |
| The Economic Cost of Terrorism | 155 |
| Cost-Effective Terrorism | 157 |
| The Impact of Terrorism on Foreign Direct Investment | 159 |
| Why It Is so Difficult to Stop the Funding of the IS | 166 |
| What the IS Is Teaching the West About Social Media | 169 |
| Implications for Business | 171 |
| 7: Economic and Resource Nationalism | 173 |
| Economic Nationalism’s Rise | 173 |
| Bolivia’s Indigenous President | 175 |
| Argentina’s History Lesson | 178 |
| A New Era for Papua New Guinea? | 180 |
| It Takes Two to (Con)Tango | 181 |
| Systemic Corruption Creates Risk | 183 |
| Lessons Unlearned | 183 |
| Pakistan’s Message to Foreign Investors | 185 |
| A Bad Deal | 185 |
| Extractive Enterprises Are Particularly Vulnerable | 186 |
| Lessons Learned | 187 |
| The Impact of Energy Resources on Bilateral Relations | 188 |
| Myanmar’s Strategic Energy Play | 188 |
| You Can’t Always Get What You Want | 189 |
| The Lady and the Dragon | 190 |
| Beating the West at Its Own Game | 191 |
| China and the Rule of Law | 192 |
| Do Sanctions Actually Work? | 194 |
| How Sanctions Can Backfire | 196 |
| Conclusion | 199 |
| 8: Climate Change | 201 |
| De-risking Climate Change | 206 |
| The Readiness Dilemma | 209 |
| A Private Sector Response | 216 |
| A Return on Misfortune | 218 |
| For Rising Tides, Deeper Pools | 220 |
| 9: Cyber Risk | 226 |
| Business Models for Ransom | 228 |
| Cyber Terrorism | 229 |
| Time for a Cyber FDIC | 232 |
| The Internet of Things | 235 |
| Flash Crash…and Burn | 239 |
| The Perfect Storm | 242 |
| Blurred Lines | 243 |
| Agile Threat … Agile Response | 244 |
| Is Cyber Risk to Be Feared or Respected? | 245 |
| 10: Corporate Social Responsibility | 248 |
| Shades of Grey | 248 |
| Governing Principles | 250 |
| CSR and Globalization | 251 |
| The Social Risk Landscape | 253 |
| Managing Strategic Partnerships | 255 |
| CSR and Shareholder Value | 256 |
| What Consumers Really Want | 258 |
| Challenges Companies Can Bring Upon Themselves | 261 |
| GE | 261 |
| Pepsi | 262 |
| Promoting Social Responsibility in the Developing World | 264 |
| The Project Finance Challenge | 264 |
| The Importance of CSR | 265 |
| Public/Private Sector Collaboration | 267 |
| Information Sharing | 267 |
| The Path Forward | 268 |
| Conclusion | 269 |
| 11: Country Risk Management | 271 |
| Defining Country Risk | 271 |
| Country vs Sovereign vs Political Risk | 272 |
| Effective Country Risk Management in the New Normal | 274 |
|