| Contents | 6 |
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| Chapter-1 | 9 |
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| Introduction | 9 |
| References | 14 |
| Chapter-2 | 15 |
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| Demographic Change as a Challenge | 15 |
| 2.1 Current Demographic Structure in Germany and Poland | 17 |
| 2.2 Determinants of Lower Fertility Rates | 19 |
| 2.3 Determinants of Mortality Decline | 23 |
| 2.4 Determinants of Migration Patterns | 24 |
| 2.4.1 Structural Components | 25 |
| 2.4.2 Patterns of Migration in the Individual Life Course | 26 |
| 2.4.3 Networks | 27 |
| 2.4.4 Border Regimes | 28 |
| 2.4.5 Hybrid Forms | 29 |
| References | 30 |
| Chapter-3 | 33 |
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| How Do Societies Cope with Complex Demographic Challenges? A Model | 33 |
| 3.1 A Short Review | 34 |
| 3.2 Demographic Ways of Coping with Demographic Change | 38 |
| 3.3 Non-demographic Ways of Coping with Demographic Change | 40 |
| 3.3.1 Problem Framing | 40 |
| 3.3.2 Coping | 44 |
| 3.3.3 Institution | 49 |
| 3.3.3.1 Do Public Labour Markets Lack Flexibility? | 52 |
| 3.3.3.2 Peculiarities of Public Sector Labour Markets: Professions and Civil Servants | 53 |
| 3.3.3.3 Demographic Change and the Division of Labour | 55 |
| 3.3.4 Mentalities | 56 |
| 3.4 Short Summary | 59 |
| References | 61 |
| Chapter-4 | 66 |
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| Data Sets and Methods Used | 66 |
| 4.1 Methodologies for Studying Coping with Demographic Change | 66 |
| 4.2 The Data Sets Created and Used | 67 |
| 4.3 Approach to Data Analysis | 71 |
| Electronic Supplementary Material | 71 |
| References | 72 |
| Chapter-5 | 73 |
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| Why do Municipalities ‘Think’ in Demographic Terms? Governing by Population Numbers in Germany and Poland | 73 |
| 5.1 Introduction | 73 |
| 5.2 Is Demographic Change Relevant to Public Sector Organisations? | 75 |
| 5.3 In-kind Calculation of Municipal Services Based on Population Numbers | 79 |
| 5.3.1 Municipal Tasks and Territorial Reforms | 80 |
| 5.3.2 In-kind Calculation of Human Resources | 84 |
| 5.3.3 Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations | 87 |
| 5.4 Demographic Responsiveness of Local Government Revenues in Germany and Poland | 90 |
| 5.4.1 Empirical Strategy: Panel Analysis | 91 |
| 5.4.2 Data Sources and Coverage | 91 |
| 5.4.3 Operationalisation of Variables | 92 |
| 5.4.4 Empirical Results | 93 |
| 5.5 Conclusion | 96 |
| Electronic Supplementary Material | 97 |
| References | 97 |
| Chapter-6 | 101 |
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| Coping with Demographic Decline in German and Polish Municipalities | 101 |
| 6.1 Introduction | 101 |
| 6.2 Comparing Municipal Framing and Coping Strategies | 103 |
| 6.3 Growth Frames and the Expansion of Public Services | 104 |
| 6.3.1 Maintaining “Skilled Employment” | 105 |
| 6.3.2 Fertility Decline as an Opportunity for Task Expansion | 107 |
| 6.3.3 Professionalising the Local Public Administration Workforce | 108 |
| 6.4 Demographisation Frames and Reduction Strategies | 110 |
| 6.4.1 An “Incredible Loss of Residents” | 111 |
| 6.4.2 Legitimate and Illegitimate Instruments of Staff Reduction | 112 |
| 6.4.3 Reduction of Collective Working Hours: A Third Way? | 115 |
| 6.5 Realistic Frames | 116 |
| 6.6 Denial Frames | 118 |
| 6.7 Reorganisation of Public Services Through Privatisation | 122 |
| 6.8 Second-Order Problems of Personnel Downsizing in Internal Labour Markets | 125 |
| 6.8.1 Rapidly Ageing Workforces | 125 |
| 6.8.2 Mismatches of Demands and Available Staff | 127 |
| 6.8.3 Skills Shortage as a Strategic Challenge | 129 |
| 6.9 Conclusion | 130 |
| References | 132 |
| Chapter-7 | 137 |
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| Expansive Reaction to Demographic Change: The Case of the Polish Educational Sector | 137 |
| 7.1 Inevitable Consequences of Demographic Change? | 138 |
| 7.2 Forms of Expansion of the Polish Educational Sector at the Central and Local Government Level | 141 |
| 7.2.1 Expansion Policies at the National Level | 141 |
| 7.2.2 Expansion Policy at the Local Level | 144 |
| 7.3 Consequences of Expansion Strategies | 150 |
| 7.3.1 School Quality | 150 |
| 7.3.2 Fiscal Stability | 153 |
| 7.3.3 Teacher Labour Market | 155 |
| 7.4 Concluding Remarks | 159 |
| References | 162 |
| Chapter-8 | 167 |
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| The Demographic Responsiveness of Education Demand and Supply at Different Levels of the Education System | 167 |
| 8.1 Introduction | 167 |
| 8.2 The Demographic Responsiveness of the Education System | 169 |
| 8.3 Demographic Responsiveness of the Education System in Saxony-Anhalt | 171 |
| 8.3.1 Early Childhood Education and Care | 172 |
| 8.3.2 Primary and Secondary General Schools | 174 |
| 8.3.3 Vocational Schools | 179 |
| 8.3.4 Higher Education | 182 |
| 8.3.5 Comparison Across the Levels of the Education System | 185 |
| 8.4 Eq
|