| Foreword | 8 |
|---|
| Acknowledgments | 10 |
|---|
| Contents | 12 |
|---|
| List of Figures | 16 |
|---|
| Chapter 1: Introduction | 22 |
|---|
| Problem Statement | 22 |
| Connection of Systems Dynamics, Economics and Demographics | 23 |
| Aims of the Study | 26 |
| Outline of the Study | 28 |
| Conceptual Tools | 30 |
| Causal Links | 31 |
| Stocks and Flows | 32 |
| Auxiliaries and Constants | 32 |
| Feedback Loops | 33 |
| Delays | 34 |
| Causal-Loop-Diagram and Stock-Flow-Diagram | 35 |
| Chapter 2: Demographic Determinants and Economic Impact | 37 |
|---|
| Introduction | 37 |
| Effects on Population | 38 |
| Fertility | 39 |
| Definition | 39 |
| Economic Theory of Fertility Choice (Barro/Becker 1988, 1989) | 42 |
| Easterlin Hypothesis (1961) | 45 |
| Biographic Theory of Fertility (Birg 1991) | 47 |
| Other Fertility Theories | 49 |
| Trend and Effects on Fertility | 50 |
| Mortality | 51 |
| Definition | 51 |
| Determinants of Mortality | 55 |
| Trend and Effects on Mortality | 55 |
| Migration | 59 |
| Definition | 59 |
| Macroeconomic Push-Pull and Gravity-Models | 61 |
| Micro-economic Behavioral Models | 62 |
| Sociological Considerations | 66 |
| Trend and Effects on Migration | 66 |
| Structure | 67 |
| Definition | 67 |
| Population Pyramids | 70 |
| Malthusian Growth Model | 70 |
| Trends and Effects on Population Structure | 74 |
| Summary and Conclusion | 76 |
| Economic Effects | 79 |
| Financial Sector | 79 |
| Lifecycle Hypothesis of Consumption | 79 |
| Ricardian Equivalence and Saving Patterns | 82 |
| Rate of Return and Asset Meltdown Hypothesis | 83 |
| Trends | 84 |
| Labor Market | 85 |
| General Observations | 85 |
| Labor Supply | 86 |
| Labor Demand | 88 |
| Trends | 91 |
| R | 91 |
| 93 | 91 |
|---|
| Skills | 93 |
| Labor Productivity | 95 |
| Innovation | 96 |
| Trends | 97 |
| Other Effects | 97 |
| Final Goods Sector: Consumption Pattern | 97 |
| Social Security Sector: Health and Long-Term Care | 98 |
| Social Security Sector: Pension Systems | 99 |
| Political Sector: Fiscal Policy | 100 |
| Political Sector: Transport Infrastructure | 101 |
| Political Sector: Election and Governance | 101 |
| Real Estate Sector: Housing Demand | 101 |
| Summary and Conclusion | 102 |
| Chapter Summary | 105 |
| Chapter 3: Neoclassical Growth Theories | 107 |
|---|
| Introduction | 107 |
| Stylized Facts and the Power of Growth | 107 |
| Short Overview | 110 |
| Exogenous Growth Model (Solow, 1956) | 112 |
| Assumptions | 112 |
| Production Function | 113 |
| Labor Force | 114 |
| Closed Economy | 114 |
| Savings | 115 |
| Investments | 115 |
| Technological Progress | 115 |
| Structure | 119 |
| Stock-Flow-Diagram | 119 |
| Phase Plot | 119 |
| Long-Term Equilibrium | 123 |
| Dynamics | 124 |
| Transitional Dynamics | 124 |
| Approaching Velocity | 125 |
| Golden Rule of Accumulation | 126 |
| Dynamic Efficiency and Dynamic Inefficiency | 128 |
| Policy Experiments | 128 |
| Population | 130 |
| Population Structure | 130 |
| Fertility and Mortality | 130 |
| Migration | 133 |
| Other Factors | 133 |
| Augmentation | 135 |
| Model of ``Silver Growth´´ (Gruescu, 2006) | 135 |
| Model with Migration (Barro/Sala-i-Martin, 2004) | 138 |
| Model with Variable Population Growth (Solow, 1956) | 139 |
| Discussion and Conclusion | 142 |
| Endogenous Growth Model (Romer, 1990) | 142 |
| Precursor of the Model | 144 |
| AK-Model (Rebelo, 1991) | 144 |
| Uzawa-Lucas-Model (1988) | 147 |
| Theory of ``Creative Destruction´´ (Schumpeter) | 150 |
| Assumptions | 151 |
| Ideas as a Public Good | 153 |
| Final-Goods Sector | 154 |
| Intermediate-Goods Sector | 155 |
| Research Sector | 155 |
| Labor Force | 156 |
| Structure | 157 |
| Stock-Flow-Diagram | 157 |
| Phase Plot | 158 |
| Long-Term Equilibrium | 158 |
| Dynamics | 161 |
| Policy Experiments | 162 |
| Population | 163 |
| Population Structure | 163 |
| Fertility and Mortality | 163 |
| Migration | 163 |
| Other Factors | 163 |
| Discussion and Conclusion | 164 |
| Semi-Endogenous Growth Model (Jones, 1995) | 165 |
| Assumptions | 166 |
| Final-Goods Sector | 166 |
| Intermediate-Goods Sector | 167 |
| Research Sector | 168 |
| Labor Force | 170 |
| Structure | 171 |
| Stock-Flow-Diagram | 171 |
| Phase Plot | 173 |
| Long-Term Equilibrium | 173 |
| Dynamics | 176 |
| Policy Experiments | 178 |
| Population | 178 |
| Population Structure | 178 |
| Fertility and Mortality | 180 |
| Migration | 181 |
| Other Factors | 182 |
| Discussion and Conclusion | 184 |
| Chapter Summary | 184 |
| Chapter 4: Demographic Growth Model | 186 |
|---|
| Introduction | 186 |
| Model Specifications | 188 |
| System Structure | 188 |
| Model Boundary | 188 |
| Integration Method and Error Test | 190 |
| Model Overview | 191 |
| Part ``Population´´ | 193 |
| Basic Structure | 193 |
| Aging | 195 |
| Births | 196 |
| Deaths | 197 |
| Migration | 198 |
| Total Population Sector | 198 |
| Part ``Research | 198 |
| 200 | 198 |
|---|
| Part ``Growth´´ | 201 |
| Intermediate Goods and Final Goods Sector | 201 |
| Demand for Goods | 202 |
| Saving and Consumption | 204 |
| Investment and Capital Stock | 204 |
| Part ``Utility´´ | 205 |
| Initialization | 209 |
| Summary
|
