| Preface | 6 |
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| Foreword 1 | 8 |
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| Foreword 2 | 10 |
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| Foreword 3 | 12 |
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| Acknowledgments | 14 |
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| Contents | 16 |
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| List of Tables | 20 |
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| List of Figures | 22 |
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| Abbreviations | 24 |
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| Chapter 1: Introduction | 26 |
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| 1.1 Motivation and Background | 26 |
| 1.2 Objectives and Research Questions | 31 |
| 1.3 Relevance of Research | 32 |
| 1.4 Structure of Thesis | 33 |
| Chapter 2: Literature Review | 35 |
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| 2.1 Strategic Management Perspective | 37 |
| 2.1.1 Environmental Scanning | 39 |
| 2.1.2 Corporate Change and Ambidexterity | 40 |
| 2.1.3 Decision Making | 48 |
| 2.2 Innovation Management Perspective | 49 |
| 2.2.1 Radical Innovations | 53 |
| 2.2.2 Disruptions | 54 |
| 2.3 Future Research Perspective | 59 |
| 2.3.1 A Brief Overview of Definitions and Relevant Terminology | 59 |
| 2.3.2 National Economy Perspective (Macro) | 59 |
| 2.3.3 Corporate Perspective (Micro) | 64 |
| 2.4 Management Theories | 72 |
| 2.4.1 Contingency Theory | 72 |
| 2.4.2 Resource-Based View | 73 |
| 2.4.3 Dynamic Capabilities | 74 |
| 2.5 Implications from Past Research for Corporate Foresight | 74 |
| Chapter 3: Research Design | 78 |
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| 3.1 Research Aims | 78 |
| 3.2 Research Strategy | 79 |
| 3.2.1 Sample and Case Selection | 80 |
| 3.2.2 Data Collection Instruments | 81 |
| 3.2.3 Key Informants | 82 |
| 3.3 Research Sequence | 84 |
| 3.4 Data Reduction and Coding | 86 |
| 3.5 Drawing Conclusions and Verifying Data | 86 |
| 3.5.1 Developing the Maturity Model of Corporate Foresight | 87 |
| 3.5.2 Identification and Discussion of Best Practices | 88 |
| 3.6 Measures Taken to Ensure Research Quality | 89 |
| Chapter 4: The Maturity Model of Corporate Foresight | 93 |
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| 4.1 The Elements | 93 |
| 4.1.1 Context | 95 |
| 4.1.2 Capabilities | 96 |
| 4.1.2.1 Information Usage | 96 |
| 4.1.2.2 Method Sophistication | 98 |
| 4.1.2.3 People and Networks | 99 |
| 4.1.2.4 Organization | 100 |
| 4.1.2.5 Culture | 101 |
| 4.1.3 Impact/Value Creation | 103 |
| 4.1.3.1 Reduction of Uncertainty | 104 |
| 4.1.3.2 Triggering Internal Actions | 108 |
| 4.1.3.3 Influencing Others to Act | 111 |
| 4.1.3.4 Secondary Benefits | 114 |
| 4.2 Maturity Levels | 115 |
| 4.2.1 Information Usage | 117 |
| 4.2.2 Method Sophistication | 120 |
| 4.2.3 People and Networks | 125 |
| 4.2.4 Organization | 126 |
| 4.2.5 Culture | 130 |
| 4.3 Usage Logic | 132 |
| 4.3.1 The Trade-Off Between Structure and Culture | 133 |
| 4.3.2 Process Dimension | 135 |
| 4.3.3 Usage Procedure | 137 |
| 4.3.3.1 First Step: Choosing the Overall Maturity Level | 138 |
| 4.3.3.2 Second Step: Choosing Between the Cultural and Structural Approach | 139 |
| 4.3.3.3 Third Step: Choosing Maturity Levels for Individual Capabilities | 141 |
| 4.3.4 Conclusion on Usage of the Maturity Model | 142 |
| Chapter 5: Best-Practices in Corporate Foresight | 144 |
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| 5.1 Networks of Scouts (Information Usage) | 144 |
| 5.1.1 Context and Motivation | 144 |
| 5.1.2 Description of Practice | 147 |
| 5.1.3 Evaluation | 151 |
| 5.2 Data Mining (Information Usage) | 152 |
| 5.2.1 Context and Motivation | 153 |
| 5.2.2 Description of Practice | 154 |
| 5.2.3 Evaluation | 157 |
| 5.3 Combining Scenario Analysis with Roadmapping (Method Sophistication) | 158 |
| 5.3.1 Context and Motivation | 159 |
| 5.3.2 Description of Practice | 160 |
| 5.3.3 Evaluation | 164 |
| 5.4 IT Collaboration Tools (People and Networks) | 166 |
| 5.4.1 Context and Motivation | 167 |
| 5.4.2 Description of Practice | 167 |
| 5.4.3 Evaluation | 170 |
| 5.5 Communicating Insights Through Participation (People and Networks) | 172 |
| 5.5.1 Context and Motivation | 172 |
| 5.5.2 Description of Practice | 173 |
| 5.5.3 Evaluation | 176 |
| 5.6 Linking Foresight to Strategy (Organization) | 177 |
| 5.6.1 Short-Term (1Year) | 178 |
| 5.6.2 Medium Term (3-5Years) | 180 |
| 5.6.3 Long Term (15-25Years) | 182 |
| 5.6.4 Evaluation | 183 |
| 5.7 Linking Foresight to Innovation Management (Organization) | 184 |
| 5.7.1 The Initiator Role | 185 |
| 5.7.2 The Strategist Role | 187 |
| 5.7.3 The Opponent Role | 189 |
| 5.7.4 Evaluation | 190 |
| 5.8 Involving Every Employee to Manage Discontinuous Change (Culture) | 191 |
| 5.8.1 Context and Motivation | 192 |
| 5.8.2 Description of Practice | 192 |
| 5.8.3 Evaluation | 196 |
| Chapter 6: Discussion and Conclusion | 197 |
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| 6.1 Managerial Contributions | 197 |
| 6.2 Theoretical Contributions | 200 |
| 6.3 Limitations and Future Research Directions | 204 |
| Chapter 7: Appendix | 207 |
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| 7.1 Interview Guideline | 207 |
| 7.2 Context Questionnaire | 209 |
| 7.3 Interview Templates | 212 |
| 7.4 Informants | 216 |
| 7.5 Internal Documents | 218 |
| 7.6 Public Information Sources | 220 |
| 7.7 Academic Publications by Informants | 221 |
| 7.8 Coding Tree | 221 |
| References | 223 |
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