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Hurricanes and Climate Change Volume 2

:	Kelsey N. Scheitlin, Jill C. Malmstadt, Robert E. Hodges, James B. Elsner
:	James B. Elsner, Robert E. Hodges, Jill C. Malmstadt, Kelsey N. Scheitlin
:	Hurricanes and Climate Change Volume 2
:	Springer-Verlag
:	9789048195107
:	1
:	CHF 85.50
:

:	Sonstiges
:	English

:	255
:	Wasserzeichen
:	PC/MAC/eReader/Tablet
:	PDF

Hurricanes are nature's most destructive agents. Widespread interest surrounds the possibility that they might get even more destructive in the future. Policy makers consider it a call for action. Answers about when and by how much hurricanes will change are sought by financial institutions especially industry. And scientists are challenged by the range and interactions of the processes involved. This book, arising from the 2nd International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change, contains new research on topics related to hurricanes and climate change since the 1st Summit. Chapters are grouped into research studies using global climate models and those taking empirical and statistical approaches. The latter include investigations of basin-wide and regional hurricane activity.

	Hurricanes and Climate Change	1
	Preface	5
	Contents	7
	1 The Tropical Cyclone Climate Model Intercomparison Project	9
	1 Introduction	10
	2 Tropical Cyclones as Simulated by Climate Models	11
	2.1 Current-Climate Simulation	11
	3 Model Description	13
	4 Methodology	14
	4.1 Large-Scale Climate Variables	14
	4.2 Detection of Tropical Cyclones in Model Output	15
	5 Results	17
	5.1 CMIP3 Model Output	17
	5.1.1 Large-Scale Fields: Emanuel Genesis Parameter	17
	5.1.2 Comparison Between Results of Two Detection Schemes	17
	5.1.3 PCMDI Model Tropical Cyclone Generation	22
	6 High-Resolution Global Model Output	25
	7 Regional Climate Model Results	27
	8 Discussion and Conclusion	28
	References	30
	2 Change of Tropical Cyclone and Seasonal Climate State in a Global Warming Experiment with a Global Cloud-System-Resolving Model	33
	1 Introduction	34
	2 Experimental Design	34
	3 Results	36
	3.1 Changes in Mean Climate Features	36
	3.2 Changes in Tropical Cyclones Tracks Frequency and Maximum Wind Speed	36
	4 Summary and Remarks	43
	References	45
	3 Role of the SST Anomaly Structures in Response of Cyclogenesis to Global Warming	46
	1 Introduction	47
	2 Definitions of the Cyclogenesis Indices	48
	2.1 Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP)	48
	2.2 Genesis Potential Index (GPI)	49
	2.3 Calibration	49
	3 Objectives of the Study	49
	4 Global Results	50
	5 Results for the Different Oceanic Basins	57
	6 Discussion	58
	7 Conclusion	61
	References	62
	4 Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Observations, Reanalysis and ARPEGE Simulations in the North Atlantic Basin	64
	1 Introduction	65
	2 Observation and Reanalysis	67
	2.1 Datasets and Tracking Methodology	67
	2.1.1 Datasets	67
	2.1.2 Tracking Methodology	68
	2.2 TCs Rainfall	69
	2.3 Fraction of TCs Rainfall	74
	2.4 Tropical Cyclonic Precipitation Efficiency -- TCPE	76
	3 Global Climate Model ARPEGE	77
	3.1 Model Description and Tracking Methodology	77
	3.1.1 Model Description and Experiment Design	77
	3.1.2 Tracking Methodology	78
	3.2 Present Integration	79
	3.2.1 TCs Rainfall	79
	3.2.2 Fraction of TCs Rainfall	80
	3.2.3 Tropical Cyclonic Precipitation Efficiency -- TCPE	80
	3.3 Future Integration	82
	3.3.1 Fraction of TCs Rainfall	82
	3.3.2 Tropical Cyclonic Precipitation Efficiency -- TCPE	82
	4 Conclusion and Discussions	83
	References	84
	5 Tropical Cyclones as a Critical Phenomenon	87
	1 Introduction	87
	2 Power-Law Distribution of the Energy of Tropical Cyclones	89
	3 Power-Law Distribution of Earthquake Energies	94
	4 Relevance and Mechanisms for Power-Law Distributions	95
	4.1 Divergence of the Mean Value	95
	4.2 Lack of Characteristic Scale	96
	4.3 Criticality	96
	5 Criticality of Tropical Cyclones	99
	6 Tropical Cyclone Energy and Climate Change	101
	7 Discussion	103
	References	104
	6 Environmental Signals in Property Damage Losses from Hurricanes	106
	1 Introduction	106
	2 Normalized Damage Losses: 1900--2007	107
	3 Climate and Solar Factors	111
	4 Large and Small Losses	113
	5 A Model for Annual Expected Loss	115
	6 A Model for the Probable Maximum Loss	118
	7 Summary	122
	References	123
	7 A Statistical Analysis of the Frequency of United States and Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes Related to Solar Activity	125
	1 Introduction	125
	2 Background	126
	3 Data	127
	4 The Sun--Hurricane Relationship	128
	4.1 Seasonal Variability	128
	4.2 Within Season Variability	131
	4.3 Multivariate Models of Seasonal Hurricane Frequency	135
	5 Summary and Conclusions	138
	References	139
	8 Regional Typhoon Activity as Revealed by Track Patterns and Climate Change	141
	1 Introduction	142
	2 Methods	142
	2.1 Clustering Methodology	142
	2.2 Change-Point Analysis	145
	3 Data	146
	4 Results	146
	5 A Suggestion for Future Research	150
	References	151
	9 Climatic Features and Their Relationship with Tropical Cyclones Over the Intra-Americas Seas	153
	1 Introduction	154
	2 Brief Review of the Intra-Americas Seas Climate Features	158
	3 Data and Methods	159
	4 Results	161
	4.1 Annual Cycle	161
	4.2 Climate Indexes for 1950--200