| Foreword | 5 |
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| Acknowledgements | 7 |
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| Contents | 8 |
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| List of Contributors | 17 |
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| The Smooth Complex Logarithm and Quasi- Periodic Models | 23 |
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| 1 Foreword | 23 |
| 2 Introduction | 23 |
| 3 Data and Models | 24 |
| 4 More to Explore | 34 |
| 5 Discussion | 37 |
| References | 39 |
| P-spline Varying Coefficient Models for Complex Data | 40 |
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| 1 Introduction | 40 |
| 2 ÏLarge Scale | 40 |
| 43 | 40 |
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| 3 Notation and Snapshot of a Smoothing Tool: B-splines | 45 |
| 4 Using B-splines for Varying Coefficient Models | 47 |
| 5 P-spline Snapshot: Equally-Spaced Knots | 47 |
| 49 | 47 |
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| 6 Optimally Tuning P-splines | 52 |
| 7 MoreKTBResults | 54 |
| 8 Extending P-VCM into the Generalized Linear Model | 54 |
| 9 Two-dimensional Varying Coefficient Models | 57 |
| 10 Discussion Toward More Complex VCMs | 62 |
| References | 63 |
| Penalized Splines, Mixed Models and Bayesian Ideas | 65 |
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| 1 Introduction | 65 |
| 2 Notation and Penalized Splines as Linear Mixed Models | 66 |
| 3 Classification with Mixed Models | 68 |
| 4 Variable Selection with Simple Priors | 70 |
| 5 Discussion and Extensions | 76 |
| References | 77 |
| Bayesian Linear RegressionÛ Different Conjugate Models and Their ( In) Sensitivity to Prior- Data Conflict | 79 |
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| 1 Introduction | 79 |
| 2 Prior-data Conflict in the i.i.d. Case | 82 |
| 3 The Standard Approach for Bayesian Linear Regression (SCP) | 84 |
| ß | 85 |
| s | 85 |
| s | 86 |
| ß | 87 |
| 4 An Alternative Approach for Conjugate Priors in Bayesian Linear Regression ( CCCP) | 88 |
| ß | 91 |
| s | 91 |
| s | 91 |
| ß | 95 |
| 5 Discussion and Outlook | 96 |
| References | 97 |
| An Efficient Model Averaging Procedure for Logistic Regression Models Using a Bayesian Estimator with Laplace Prior | 99 |
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| 1 Introduction | 99 |
| 2 Model Averaging | 100 |
| 3 Simulation Study | 106 |
| 4 Conclusion and Outlook | 108 |
| References | 109 |
| Posterior and Cross-validatory Predictive Checks: A Comparison of MCMC and INLA | 111 |
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| 1 Introduction | 111 |
| 2 The INLA Approach | 112 |
| 3 Predictive Model Checks with MCMC | 116 |
| 4 Application | 119 |
| 5 Discussion | 127 |
| References | 129 |
| Data Augmentation and MCMC for Binary and Multinomial Logit Models | 131 |
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| 1 Introduction | 131 |
| 2 MCMC Estimation Based on Data Augmentation for Binary Logit Regression Models | 133 |
| 3 MCMC Estimation Based on Data Augmentation for the Multinomial Logit Regression Model | 140 |
| 4 MCMC Sampling without Data Augmentation | 143 |
| 5 Comparison of the Various MCMC Algorithms | 145 |
| 6 Concluding Remarks | 150 |
| References | 151 |
| Generalized Semiparametric Regression with Covariates Measured with Error | 153 |
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| 1 Introduction | 153 |
| 2 Semiparametric Regression Models with Measurement Error | 155 |
| 3 Bayesian Inference | 159 |
| 4 Simulations | 163 |
| 5 Incident Heart Failure in the ARIC Study | 170 |
| 6 Summary | 173 |
| References | 173 |
| Determinants of the Socioeconomic and Spatial Pattern of Undernutrition by Sex in India: A Geoadditive Semi- parametric Regression Approach | 175 |
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| 1 Introduction | 175 |
| 2 TheData | 178 |
| 3 Measurement and Determinants of Undernutrition | 180 |
| 4 Variables Included in the Regression Model | 182 |
| 5 Statistical Methodology - Semiparametric Regression Analysis | 187 |
| 6 Results | 190 |
| 7 Conclusion | 197 |
| References | 198 |
| Boosting for Estimating Spatially Structured Additive Models | 200 |
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| 1 Introduction | 200 |
| 2 Methods | 202 |
| 3 Results | 208 |
| 4 Discussion | 213 |
| References | 214 |
| Generalized Linear Mixed Models Based on Boosting | 216 |
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| 1 Introduction | 216 |
| 2 Generalized Linear Mixed Models - GLMM | 217 |
| 3 Boosted Generalized Linear Mixed Models - bGLMM | 219 |
| 4 Application to CD4 Data | 231 |
| 5 Concluding Remarks | 233 |
| References | 233 |
| Measurement and Predictors of a Negative Attitude towards Statistics among LMU Students | 235 |
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| 1 Introduction | 235 |
| 2 Method | 237 |
| 3 Results | 239 |
| 4 Discussion and Conclusion | 245 |
| References | 247 |
| Graphical Chain Models and their Application | 249 |
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| 1 Introduction | 249 |
| 2 Graphical Chain Models | 251 |
| 3 Model Selection | 253 |
| 4 Data Set | 254 |
| 5 Results | 258 |
| 6 Discussion | 261 |
| References | 262 |
| Appendix | 264 |
| Indirect Comparison of Interaction Graphs | 266 |
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| 1 Introduction | 267 |
| 2 Methods | 268 |
| 3 Example | 272 |
| 4 Discussion | 274 |
| References | 276 |
| Appendix | 277 |
| . | 278 |
| Modelling, Estimation and Visualization of Multivariate Dependence for High- frequency Data | 283 |
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| 1 Multivariate Risk Assessment for Extreme Risk | 283 |
| 2 Measuring Extreme Dependence | 286 |
| 3 Extreme Dependence Estimation | 296 |
| 4 High-frequency Financial Data | 301 |
| 5 Conclusion | 314 |
| References | 315 |
| Ordinal- and Continuous-Response Stochastic Volatility Models for Price Changes: An Empirical Comparison | 317 |
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| 1 Introduction | 317 |
| 2 Ordinal- and Continuous-Response Stochastic Volatility Models | 319 |
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