: Brian Everitt
: Chance Rules An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics
: Copernicus
: 9780387774152
: 2
: CHF 23.70
:
: Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie, Stochastik, Mathematische Statistik
: English
: 142
: Wasserzeichen/DRM
: PC/MAC/eReader/Tablet
: PDF

Chance continues to govern our lives in the 21st Century. From the genes we inherit and the environment into which we are born, to the lottery ticket we buy at the local store, much of life is a gamble. In business, education, travel, health, and marriage, we take chances in the hope of obtaining something better. Chance colors our lives with uncertainty, and so it is important to examine it and try to understand about how it operates in a number of different circumstances. Such understanding becomes simpler if we take some time to learn a little about probability, since probability is the natural language of uncertainty.

This second edition of Chance Rules again recounts the story of chance through history and the various ways it impacts on our lives. Here you can read about the earliest gamblers who thought that the fall of the dice was controlled by the gods, as well as the modern geneticist and quantum theory researcher trying to integrate aspects of probability into their chosen speciality. Example included in the first addition such as the infamous Monty Hall problem, tossing coins, coincidences, horse racing, birthdays and babies remain, often with an expanded discussion, in this edition. Additional material in the second edition includes, a probabilistic explanation of why things were better when you were younger, consideration of whether you can use probability to prove the existence of God, how long you may have to wait to win the lottery, some court room dramas, predicting the future, and how evolution scores over creationism. Chance Rules lets you learn about probability without complex mathematics.

Preface to the Second Edition6
Acknowledgments to the Second Edition7
Preface to the First Edition8
Acknowledgments to the First Edition10
Contents12
A Brief History of Chance14
Introduction14
A Brief History of Chance14
What Are the Chances? Assigning Probabilities25
Introduction25
Using Relative Frequencies as Probabilities26
The Classical Definition of Probability26
Subjective Probability28
Rules for Combining Probabilities29
Odds30
Choice and Chance Permutations and Combinations
Introduction31
Permutations and Combinations32
Using Permutations and Combinations to Assign Probabilities34
Tossing Coins and Having Babies36
The Toss of a Coin36
The Probability of a Head38
Some Surprising Results About Coin Tossing41
Two tosses41
Four tosses41
Having Babies45
Rolling Dice50
Rolling Dice50
Shooting Craps55
Waiting Times56
Gambling for Fun: Lotteries and Football Pools58
Introduction58
National Lotteries58
Football Pools63
Serious Gambling: Roulette, Cards and Horse Racing66
Introduction66
Roulette67
Playing Cards69
Poker71
Contract Bridge75
Blackjack78
Horse Racing80
Balls, Birthdays and Coincidences87
Introduction87
Birthday Surprises89
Coincidences91
Conditional Probability and the Reverend Thomas Bayes96
Introduction96
Conditional Probability97
Conditional Probabilities and Medical Practice101
An Unsung Statistician103
Applying Bayes’s Theorem106
Back to the Courtroom109
Puzzling Probabilities114
Introduction114
A New Neighbour114
The Fabulous Prize116
Theres No Such Thing as a Surprise Fire Drill118
Will You Get the Correct Seat?119
Finding the Right Hat121
Records or Why Things Were Better When I Was Young122
Choosing the Most Bubbly Secretary123
The St. Petersburg Paradox126
All Probabilities Are Conditional127
Taking Risks129
Introduction129
Quantifying Risk131
Risk Presentation and Risk Perception134
Acceptable Risk141
Statistics, Statisticians and Medicine143
Introduction143
Medicine-from Anecdote to Evidence144
Treatments Worthless-and Worse145
The Beginnings of a Rational Approach147
The Clinical Trial151
Vitamin C and the Common Cold155
Healing Power of Prayer?157
Summary160
Alternative Therapies-Panaceas or Placebos?162
Introduction162
Acupuncture165
Loosing Weight168
Stopping Smoking168
Homoeopathy170
Warts and All170
Adenoid Enlargement171
Migraine171
Summary172
What Does the Future Hold?176
Introduction176
Statistical Models177
Modelling Winning Times in the Men’s 1500 m in the Olympic Games178
Can Statisticians or Mathematicians Predict the Market?185
Chance, Chaos and Chromosomes189
The Overthrow of Determinism189
Chaos193
Evolution, Genes and Chromosomes194
Life, the Universe and Everything200
Epilogue204
Sources 205
Index206