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Interdisciplinary Public Health Reasoning and Epidemic Modelling: The Case of Black Death

:	George Christakos, Ricardo A. Olea, Marc L. Serre, Hwa-Lung Yu, Lin-Lin Wang
:	Interdisciplinary Public Health Reasoning and Epidemic Modelling: The Case of Black Death
:	Springer-Verlag
:	9783540281658
:	1
:	CHF 85.90
:

:	Natur und Gesellschaft: Allgemeines, Nachschlagewerke
:	English

:	320
:	Wasserzeichen/DRM
:	PC/MAC/eReader/Tablet
:	PDF

This multidisciplinary reference takes the reader through all four major phases of interdisciplinary inquiry: adequate conceptualization, rigorous formulation, substantive interpretation, and innovative implementation. The text introduces a novel synthetic paradigm of public health reasoning and epidemic modelling, and implements it with a study of the infamous 14^th century AD Black Death disaster that killed at least one-fourth of the European population.

	Preface	6
	Contents	8
	Chapter I Toward an Interdisciplinary Methodology	14
	A. Concerning the Current Paradigm In Search of Bohemians	14
	B. Methodological and Empirical Issues of Interdisciplinary Epidemic Research	22
	C. Conceptual Components of SEP	35
	D. Epidemic Causality as an Interdisciplinary Affair	39
	E. Focusing on Black Death	49
	Chapter II - Stochastic Modelling	56
	A. Why Stochastics?	56
	B. On Stochastic Modelling	81
	C. Theory of Spatiotemporal Random Fields (S/TRF)	85
	D. Mathematical Formulation of the SEP Principles	92
	E. The Role of Temporal Geographical Information Systems ( TGIS)	105
	F. The Man and the Hammer	114
	Chapter III - Black Death: The Background	116
	A. Introduction	116
	B. The Controversy About the Epidemiologic Nature of Black Death	121
	C. Interdisciplinary Sources	127
	D. Data Processing and Interpretation Issues	145
	E. Si non è Vero, è Molto Ben Trovato	164
	Chapter IV - Mathematical Formulation of the Knowledge Bases	166
	A. Introduction	166
	B. Mathematical Formulation of the General Knowledge Base	168
	C. Coding the Specificatory Knowledge Base	190
	D. Some Thoughts on the SEP Integration of Black Death Concepts and Data	204
	Chapter V - Spatiotemporal Mapping of the Epidemic	206
	A. Maps of the Epidemic, Their Interpretation and Findings	206
	B. Wave Propagation	221
	C. Space-Time Inference	226
	Chapter VI - Epea Pteroenta	246
	A. What to do With the Philistines?	246
	B. The Oedipus State and Epidemic Warning Systems	250
	C. There is no Rest for the Wicked	252
	Appendices	254
	Appendix A. Annotated Black Death Data Summary	254
	Appendix B. Parameters for the Non-linear Extended Reed and Frost ( ERF) Model	296
	References	306
	A. Printed References	306
	B. Electronic References	323
	Index	326