| Acknowledgments | 5 |
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| Preface | 6 |
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| Contents | 9 |
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| List of Contributors | 11 |
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| The Propagation of Macroeconomic Shocks: A Dynamic Model with Contracts and Imperfect Competition | 13 |
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| 1 Introduction | 13 |
| 2 The Model | 14 |
| 3 TheWalrasian Regime | 17 |
| 4 The Demand for Goods and Labor | 18 |
| 5 Price Contracts | 19 |
| 6 Wage Contracts | 20 |
| 7 Macroeconomic Dynamics | 20 |
| 8 Conclusions | 24 |
| References | 31 |
| Variable Elasticity of Substitution and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence | 33 |
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| 1 Introduction | 33 |
| 2 A VES Production Function | 34 |
| 3 VES in the Solow-Swan Growth Model | 36 |
| 4 Empirical Considerations of VES | 37 |
| 5 Estimation of a VES Production Function | 41 |
| 6 Conclusions and Extensions | 44 |
| References | 48 |
| Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: A Semiparametric Approach | 50 |
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| 1 Introduction | 50 |
| 2 Data | 53 |
| 3 Econometric Methodology | 53 |
| 4 Empirical Results | 57 |
| 5 Conclusion | 59 |
| Appendix | 59 |
| References | 62 |
| Bridging the Gap: Linking Economics and Econometrics | 64 |
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| 1 Introduction | 64 |
| 2 Non-Stationarities | 66 |
| 3 Linking Economics and Econometrics | 73 |
| 4 Credibility | 78 |
| 5 An Objective and Non-Distortionary Modelling Tool | 80 |
| 6 Conclusion | 84 |
| References | 85 |
| Revenue Smoothing in an ARIMA Framework: Evidence from the United States | 89 |
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| 1 Introduction | 89 |
| 2 The Theory of Optimal Seigniorage | 90 |
| 3 Econometric Methodology | 91 |
| 4 Empirical Results | 92 |
| 5 Conclusion | 96 |
| References | 97 |
| What VAR Tell us about DSGE Models? | 99 |
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| 1 Introduction | 100 |
| 2 Models | 103 |
| 3 VAR Models | 111 |
| 4 Explanations | 118 |
| 5 An Alternative Identification Scheme | 121 |
| 6 Conclusions and Practical Suggestions | 123 |
| References | 132 |
| Ex ante Real Returns in Forward Market Speculation in the Inter-War Period: Evidence and Prediction | 134 |
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| 1 Introduction | 134 |
| 2 Excess Foreign Exchange Returns | 136 |
| 3 Empirical Tests | 137 |
| 4 Prediction | 143 |
| 5 Conclusion | 145 |
| References | 153 |
| Testing for Fractional Cointegration: The Relationship between Government Popularity and Economic Performance in the UK | 155 |
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| 1 Introduction | 155 |
| 2 The Data Set | 157 |
| 3 Models of Fractional Cointegration | 162 |
| 4 Tests of Noncointegration | 165 |
| 5 Tests of Cointegration | 171 |
| 6 Power Evaluation | 172 |
| 7 Tests for Short-run Correlation | 176 |
| 8 Conclusion | 177 |
| References | 178 |
| Non-stationarity Tests in Macroeconomic Time Series | 180 |
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| 1 Introduction | 180 |
| 2 Non-stationarity Tests | 182 |
| 3 Non-stationarity Tests with Structural Changes | 187 |
| 4 Non-stationarity and Macroeconomic Theory | 190 |
| 5 Conclusion | 194 |
| References | 195 |
| Seasonality, Nonstationarity and the Structural Forecasting of the Index of Industrial Production | 202 |
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| 1 Introduction and Motivation | 202 |
| 2 Model Specification | 203 |
| 3 Testing for (Seasonal) Unit Roots | 205 |
| 4 Asymptotic Least Squares Estimation Procedure | 207 |
| 5 Asymptotic Least Squares Estimation Results | 212 |
| 6 Forecasting | 215 |
| 7 Final Remarks | 216 |
| References | 228 |
| Complex Dynamics in Macroeconomics: A Novel Approach | 229 |
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| 1 Introduction | 229 |
| 2 Recurrence Quantification Analysis | 231 |
| 3 RQA Results | 236 |
| 4 Conclusions and Future Research | 241 |
| References | 241 |