: Mohammed Abdellaoui, R. Duncan Luce, Mark J. Machina, Bertrand Munier
: Mohammed Abdellaoui, R. Duncan Luce, Mark Machina, Bertrand Munier
: Uncertainty and Risk Mental, Formal, Experimental Representations
: Springer-Verlag
: 9783540489351
: 1
: CHF 85.40
:
: Volkswirtschaft
: English
: 308
: Wasserzeichen
: PC/MAC/eReader/Tablet
: PDF

This book tries to sort out the different meanings of uncertainty and to discover their foundations. It shows that uncertainty can be represented using various tools and mental guidelines. Coverage also examines alternative ways to deal with risk and risk attitude concepts. Behavior under uncertainty emerges from this book as something to base more on inquiry and reflection rather than on mere intuition.

Contents5
Introduction7
Foundations12
Conjectures, Refutations and Discoveries: Incorporating New Knowledge in Models of Belief and Choice under Uncertainty13
When an Event Makes a Difference30
Countable Additivity and the Foundations of Bayesian Statistics36
On the Quantification and Decomposition of Uncertainty43
The Importance of Representational Tools in Understanding Behaviour Under Uncertainty and Risk62
Preference for Diversification with Similarity Considerations63
Uncertainty Improves the Second-Best84
Lorenz Meets Rating but Misses Valuation100
A Deeper Look at Hyperbolic Discounting123
The Assessment of Several Alternative Decision Rules149
Take-the-Best” and Other Simple Strategies: Why and When They Work Well with Binary Cues150
On Generalized Secretary Problems183
Voting on Alternatives or on Criteria? The Meta- Decision on Group Decision Procedures202
Models of Risk Attitude Modelling and Methodological Issues215
Probabilistic Risk Analysis Versus Decision Analysis: Similarities, Differences and Illustrations216
A Conjoint Measurement Based Rationale for Inducing Preferences236
Active Search for Probability Information and Recall Performance: Is Probability an Outstanding Element in the Mental Representation of Risky Decisions?254
Evolutionary Analysis of Risk Attitudes in Competitive Bidding Environments Using Simulation268
Behavior in Risky Decisions: Focus on Risk Defusing284