: Gregor Betz
: Prediction or Prophecy? The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences
: DUV Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag
: 9783835090538
: 1
: CHF 49.80
:
: Volkswirtschaft
: English
: 280
: Wasserzeichen/DRM
: PC/MAC/eReader/Tablet
: PDF
Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?

Dr. Gregor Betz ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter von Prof. Dr. Holm Tetens am Fachbereich Philosophie und Geisteswissenschaften der Freien Universität Berlin.
Foreword6
Preface8
Contents10
List of Figures13
List of Tables15
Chapter 1 Introduction16
Part I Assessing the predictive limits of economics34
Chapter 2 Recent performance of economic forecasts35
Chapter 3 A historical perspective on economic forecast performance56
Chapter 4 Forecast performance in natural sciences66
Part II Understanding the predictive limits of economics92
Chapter 5 Predictability of complex systems93
Chapter 6 The quality of data104
Chapter 7 Expectations and reflexiveness124
Chapter 8 Sensitive dependence on initial conditions141
Chapter 9 Experiment and simulation155
Chapter 10 Unrealistic- assumption explanations173
Part III Living with the predictive limits of economics185
Chapter 11 Consequences for traditional decision making186
Chapter 12 Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance206
Chapter 13 Post- normal science239
Appendix263
Bibliography270
Index282