| Foreword | 6 |
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| Preface | 8 |
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| Contents | 10 |
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| List of Figures | 13 |
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| List of Tables | 15 |
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| Chapter 1 Introduction | 16 |
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| Part I Assessing the predictive limits of economics | 34 |
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| Chapter 2 Recent performance of economic forecasts | 35 |
| Chapter 3 A historical perspective on economic forecast performance | 56 |
| Chapter 4 Forecast performance in natural sciences | 66 |
| Part II Understanding the predictive limits of economics | 92 |
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| Chapter 5 Predictability of complex systems | 93 |
| Chapter 6 The quality of data | 104 |
| Chapter 7 Expectations and reflexiveness | 124 |
| Chapter 8 Sensitive dependence on initial conditions | 141 |
| Chapter 9 Experiment and simulation | 155 |
| Chapter 10 Unrealistic- assumption explanations | 173 |
| Part III Living with the predictive limits of economics | 185 |
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| Chapter 11 Consequences for traditional decision making | 186 |
| Chapter 12 Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance | 206 |
| Chapter 13 Post- normal science | 239 |
| Appendix | 263 |
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| Bibliography | 270 |
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| Index | 282 |