| Contents | 6 |
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| Contributors | 8 |
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| Causal Analysis in Population Studies | 10 |
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| 1.1 Introduction | 10 |
| 1.2 Structure of the Volume | 13 |
| References | 16 |
| Issues in the Estimation of Causal Effects in Population Research, with an Application to the Effects of Teenage Childbearing | 17 |
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| 2.1 Introduction | 17 |
| 2.2 The Basic Causal Model | 18 |
| 2.3 Instrumental Variables | 21 |
| 2.4 Types of Instrumental Variables | 26 |
| 2.5 Additional Issues | 31 |
| 2.6 Summary and Conclusions | 35 |
| References | 36 |
| Sequential Potential Outcome Models to Analyze the Effects of Fertility on Labor Market Outcomes | 38 |
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| 3.1 Introduction | 38 |
| 3.2 The Dynamic Causal Model - Notation, Effects, and Identification | 41 |
| 3.3 Estimation | 46 |
| 3.4 Specifying Causal Parameters of Interest | 52 |
| 3.5 Data | 54 |
| 3.6 Estimation Results | 57 |
| 3.7 Conclusions | 59 |
| References | 62 |
| Structural Modelling, Exogeneity, and Causality | 65 |
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| 4.1 Causal Analysis in the Social Sciences | 65 |
| 4.2 Structural Modelling | 70 |
| 4.3 Conditional Models, Exogeneity and Causality | 73 |
| 4.4 Confounding, Complex Systems and Completely Recursive Systems | 77 |
| 4.5 Partial Observability and Latent Variables | 82 |
| 4.6 Discussion and Conclusion | 85 |
| References | 87 |
| Causation as a Generative Process. The Elaboration of an Idea for the Social Sciences and an Application to an Analysis of an Interdependent Dynamic Social System | 89 |
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| 5.1 Introduction | 89 |
| 5.2 Models of Causal Inference | 90 |
| 5.3 Parallel and Interdependent Processes | 94 |
| 5.4 An Application Example | 103 |
| 5.5 Substantial Explanations | 106 |
| 5.6 Summary and Concluding Remarks | 111 |
| References | 112 |
| Instrumental Variable Estimation for Duration Data | 116 |
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| 6.1 Introduction | 116 |
| 6.2 Endogenous Covariates in Duration Models | 119 |
| 6.3 Instrumental Variable Linear Rank Estimation | 125 |
| 6.4 Application to the Illinois Re-employment Bonus Experiment | 131 |
| 6.5 Conclusion | 138 |
| References | 140 |
| Appendix 1: Identification of the GAFT Model | 141 |
| Appendix 2: Counting Process Interpretation | 143 |
| Appendix 3 Asymptotic Properties of the IVLR | 146 |
| Appendix 4 Additional Tables for the IVLR of Reemployment Bonus Experiment | 150 |
| Female Labour Participation with Concurrent Demographic Processes: An Estimation for Italy | 154 |
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| 7.1 Introduction | 154 |
| 7.2 Background | 154 |
| 7.3 Model Specification: Theoretical and Methodological Issues | 156 |
| 7.4 The Data | 163 |
| 7.5 Results | 164 |
| 7.6 Discussion | 166 |
| References | 169 |
| New Estimates on the Effect of Parental Separation on Child Health | 171 |
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| 8.1 Introduction | 171 |
| 8.2 Background | 173 |
| 8.3 Statistical Framework and Estimation Strategy | 175 |
| 8.4 Data, Sample, and Descriptive Evidence | 182 |
| 8.5 Estimation Results | 187 |
| 8.6 Conclusion | 196 |
| References | 198 |
| Appendix | 202 |
| Assessing the Causal Effect of Childbearing on Household Income in Albania | 204 |
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| 9.1 Introduction | 204 |
| 9.2 The Albanian Background | 206 |
| 9.3 The Albania Living Standards Measurement Study | 207 |
| 9.4 A Measure of Well-Being | 208 |
| 9.5 Descriptive Statistics | 212 |
| 9.6 Identifying the Causal Effect of a New Birth | 214 |
| 9.7 Results | 220 |
| 9.8 Conclusions | 232 |
| References | 233 |
| Causation and Its Discontents | 235 |
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| References | 241 |
| Index | 245 |